Population Projections for Schools – 2022 – 2037
Every five years we have a new release of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Population Forecasts by sex and 5-year age group.
In October 2024, the ABS released updated information for 2022 – 2032, and we have used our own methodology to project this out to 2037, balancing this with the National Population Projections (medium growth scenario).
The new projections are based initially on the 2021 Census, and assumptions about overseas migration then more macro data such as migration projections, birth and death rates and internal migration across States.
This also has inputs from State Governments and Councils to pass on their views on specific growth areas.
Our view is that the ABS forecasts outweigh other State Government projections as it is their role to give a National viewpoint.
| Year | ABS/Spectrum SA2 Projections | ABS Medium Series Projections | Difference |
| 2022 | 26,005,540 | 26,013,061 | 0.03% |
| 2023 | 26,535,367 | 26,535,367 | 0.00% |
| 2024 | 26,971,766 | 26,971,766 | 0.00% |
| 2025 | 27,395,011 | 27,395,011 | 0.00% |
| 2026 | 27,805,684 | 27,805,684 | 0.00% |
| 2027 | 28,201,094 | 28,201,094 | 0.00% |
| 2028 | 28,581,272 | 28,581,272 | 0.00% |
| 2029 | 28,946,317 | 28,946,317 | 0.00% |
| 2030 | 29,294,970 | 29,294,970 | 0.00% |
| 2031 | 29,628,141 | 29,628,141 | 0.00% |
| 2032 | 29,944,139 | 29,944,139 | 0.00% |
| 2033 | 30,255,082 | 30,255,082 | 0.00% |
| 2034 | 30,561,214 | 30,561,214 | 0.00% |
| 2035 | 30,862,815 | 30,862,815 | 0.00% |
| 2036 | 31,160,201 | 31,160,201 | 0.00% |
| 2037 | 31,453,335 | 31,453,335 | 0.00% |
We have now incorporated these projections into our GeoMapping software.
Here you can see it is a Total Population Projection for SA2 Area Malvern East.
Here you can see it as a Population Projection for 0-18 years old for SA2 Area Malvern East.
If you have access to our Level 3 or Level 4 Mapping, you will see this as a separate layer (just slide across the ‘blue’ button).
Suggested Explanations of Variations
The previous data was released in October 2019, a time of prosperity and before most of us had even heard the words “COVID 19”! The starting point was Census 2016 where the new data is using Census 2021 to work from.
International Migration
The 4th Intergenerational Report (released in 2015) was the most current at that time (in 2019) and it describes its job as “to provide projections adopting a ‘point-in-time’ format—that is, using the assumption that current government policies will continue over the next 40 years, without change.”
In 2015, the “net overseas migration” was forecast at 215,000 persons per year in bound.
The 6th Intergenerational Report (released in 2023), we see migration stopped in 2020 and 2021, strong in 2022 and 2023 and now the Government is trying to hold it at around 225,000 pa.
Net overseas migration
Source: ABS, National, state and territory population, September 2022, 2023; and Treasury.
The effect of all this is that the original 2022 Projections were probably overstated, and now we have had two big years of migration (2022 / 2023), we will surpass what was previously forecast across Australia by 2029.
Internal migration (state based)
Covid lead to unexpected migration mainly from Victoria and NSW to Queensland. This probably lead to some minor adjustments downward in Victoria and NSW and a large effect in Queensland (based on the additional arrivals).
Drop in birthrate and older persons living longer at home
The effect of this is that many older established suburbs are having elderly people live at home longer (and therefore the houses not turning over), and the younger people are having less children, and when they move into established areas, they bring less school age children with them.
Please use this to assist in your future planning, and contact us to discuss how we can help you further.