Comparing Data Can Be Difficult

Mapping
ACARA versus Census Data 2016 - 2021

Comparing Data Can Be Difficult

By Peter Buckingham

When we compare data from different sources, you can come up with slightly different conclusions. Normally the issue is in the way the data is collected, or the different way the questions are asked.

At Spectrum Analysis, we are often asked by schools, what is the change in enrolment numbers (in general) for certain areas, and what is the trend over time?

This article compares the ABS Census Australia wide results when comparing the 2016 census with the 2021 census, and THEN how this compares against the ACARA numbers in 2016 and in 2021.

2016 vs 2021 numbers – Go Figure!        
         
ACARA Data

Catholic

Government

Independent

Grand Total
2016 (#) 713,899 2,504,434 590,916 3,809,239
2016 (%) 18.7% 65.7% 15.5% 100.0%
2021 (#) 738,265 2,667,399 669,673 4,075,337
2021 (%) 18.1% 65.5% 16.4% 100.0%
         
Census Data Catholic Government Independent Grand Total
2016 (#) 710,612 2,140,793 496,664 3,348,069
2016 (%) 21.2% 63.9% 14.8% 100.0%
2021 (#) 756,643 2,352,637 559,971 3,669,251
2021 (%) 20.6% 64.1% 15.3% 100.0%
         
Summary        
2016-2021 Difference ACARA -0.6% -0.2% 0.9%  
2016-2021 Difference Census -0.6% 0.2% 0.5%  

The broad conclusions are:

  1. Catholic education market share has dropped around 0.6%.
  2. The Government sector has stayed reasonably stable as you can see when looking at ACARA data it is down 0.2%, where looking at ABS Census data it is up 0.2%.
  3. Independent schools market share has increased by somewhere between 0.5% – 0.9%.

The major questions we have to ask is how come in 2021, Individual schools showed they had 4,075,337 students, but in the 2021 census, the ABS only identified 3,669,251 students? Where are the 406,086 students which is a difference of 10%?

Overall, the data shows that the Catholic Education system is losing market share whilst Independent Schools seem to be gaining market share over the five year period. The question is what will the 2022 data look like when it is released by ACARA?

Happy to discuss further or look at specific markets or areas if required. Please contact us for details.