Data is Golden – Hope is NOT a Strategy!
Peter Buckingham BSc, GradDip (Market Modelling), CMC, CFE, FFCA, MEdPlus, WFA, ACAVic is the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis Australia Pty Ltd, the leading demographic analysis and mapping company for schools in Australia. He was also a Federal Director and Victoria / Tasmania President of the Institute of Management Consultants. Peter is contactable by email at:
peterb@spectrumanalysis.com.au or visit spectrumanalysis.com.au.
When making strategic decisions for your school, is the starting point facts and data, or do we make some assumptions (gut feeling) and start from there? Data is available to answer most of your questions in a factual manner, and if schools cannot use facts and data in their own planning – I am unsure what they are teaching their pupils in this day and age!
The ACARA data gives us a good look at each State, but for the exercise I will demonstrate the point using the National data released in May 2024, which includes the 2023 school data.
| AUSTRALIA | |||||||
| Full Time Equivalent Enrolments | |||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023% | 2019-2023 | |
| Catholic | 713,755 | 724,312 | 734,539 | 742,691 | 755,373 | 18.43% | 5.83% |
| Combined | 104,714 | 110,878 | 117,674 | 123,947 | 130,875 | 3.19% | 24.98% |
| Primary | 353,719 | 353,093 | 353,489 | 354,225 | 356,362 | 8.69% | 0.75% |
| Secondary | 252,553 | 257,353 | 260,242 | 261,244 | 264,530 | 6.45% | 4.74% |
| Special | 2,769 | 2,989 | 3,133 | 3,275 | 3,606 | 0.09% | 30.23% |
| Government | 2,600,282 | 2,639,361 | 2,633,330 | 2,618,283 | 2,627,224 | 64.09% | 1.04% |
| Combined | 191,239 | 195,338 | 196,800 | 199,930 | 201,309 | 4.91% | 5.27% |
| Primary | 1,497,931 | 1,499,929 | 1,487,242 | 1,457,832 | 1,457,140 | 35.54% | -2.72% |
| Secondary | 878,251 | 910,948 | 915,801 | 925,601 | 932,557 | 22.75% | 6.18% |
| Special | 32,861 | 33,146 | 33,487 | 34,920 | 36,218 | 0.88% | 10.21% |
| Independent | 628,059 | 644,230 | 667,356 | 689,395 | 716,848 | 17.49% | 14.14% |
| Combined | 547,946 | 561,472 | 582,205 | 602,612 | 624,222 | 15.23% | 13.92% |
| Primary | 27,908 | 27,668 | 28,791 | 27,961 | 29,035 | 0.71% | 4.04% |
| Secondary | 40,674 | 41,615 | 42,978 | 44,213 | 46,813 | 1.14% | 15.09% |
| Special | 11,530 | 13,474 | 13,383 | 14,610 | 16,778 | 0.41% | 45.51% |
| Grand Total | 3,942,096 | 4,007,903 | 4,035,225 | 4,050,369 | 4,099,444 | 100.00% | 3.99% |
The critical numbers I wish to draw your attention to is that from 2019 – 2023, Total Full Time Equivalent Enrolments increased by 3.99%.
Over the same period, Government schools only increased by 1.04%, Catholic schools by 5.83%, and Independent schools by 14.14%!
I am not saying every Independent school should have increased by 14.14% rather that should be the benchmark you look against and see if you are satisfied with your performance.
Many schools that are well below this number may be there by choice. I am hearing many of the well-established schools saying we are at about our long term targets, and may not wish to take on more students due to facilities, or simply they are at the number they see as ideal.
Many high growth or new schools can be well above this, and maybe it has been the development of the area they are in, or are a religious school, and we have seen large increases in the student age Islamic population. Others may be feeling good about their performance in the last four years, until they see these figures!
The big issue is we probably are at the top of the market share cycle for Independent schools at present, and as we see higher interest rates take effect, those very comforting, long waiting lists may dwindle. If you are treading water with little enrolment increases in the last three years, and short waiting lists, this may be the time you need to take some stronger steps to increase enrolments, as organic growth will probably subside. Maybe it is time to revisit your Strategic Plan?
What information is available to build our Strategic Plan?
School Principals are normally very well educated, from PhD’s through all types of degrees, and down to the basic rules of common sense. Educated people normally use data and information in whatever decisions they make in work or life. Hopefully the decisions you make for your school are based on data, and not emotion or just the old “wet finger in the air” approach.
With annual budgets in some of our largest schools in Australia exceeding $100M per annum, we all would like to think this money is well spent, and as the stewards of your school, you will be thinking of the long-term future of your school.
So what is a realistic combination of facts and data to give you, your board and your executive staff reasonable information to make the best business decisions?
Data available to assist
When you dig around, there is a mountain of information that should assist in your future decisions. Much of this is free. However, having it in a simple format so you can use it can be a very large challenge.
Census data
Every five years the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) runs a Census. The last Census was in August 2021, and over the next couple of years various data sets are released. This includes the population of any area (in 2021), by gender, age, ethnicity, income, religious trends, what type of schools your children attend and much more. This becomes the starting point of the five-year cycle.
SEIFA – Socio Economic Index for Areas
This is looking at every area in Australia to give a comparative score to look at what the residents basically can afford to do. The average of the SEIFA score for Australia from the 2021 census was 1004, and top areas like around Double Bay or Toorak score up near 1200, and low socio-economic regional areas may drop to numbers like 600 – 800.
This is a better way for comparing areas Australia wide than just the Average Household Income. This is one of the best appetites as to the parent’s willingness to pay fees.
Population Forecasts
The ABS give out population forecasts for areas and the last released Australia wide data covered 2017 – 2032. This breaks down to gender and age groups 0 – 4, 5 – 9, 10 – 14, 15 – 19 etc which gives us coverage for school students.
- SA2 Area : Austral – Greendale
- State : NSW
| Age 0-18 Population Projections | ||||
| Year | Age 0-4 | Age 5-11 | Age 12-18 | Age 5-18 |
| 2022 | 1,083 | 1,550 | 1,479 | 3,029 |
| 2023 | 1,195 | 1,693 | 1,617 | 3,310 |
| 2024 | 1,308 | 1,837 | 1,742 | 3,578 |
| 2025 | 1,418 | 1,982 | 1,885 | 3,867 |
| 2026 | 1,529 | 2,124 | 2,034 | 4,158 |
| 2027 | 1,629 | 2,268 | 2,178 | 4,447 |
| 2028 | 1,735 | 2,411 | 2,324 | 4,736 |
| 2029 | 1,836 | 2,556 | 2,471 | 5,028 |
| 2030 | 1,928 | 2,706 | 2,613 | 5,320 |
| 2031 | 2,020 | 2,850 | 2,753 | 5,603 |
| 2032 | 2,109 | 2,990 | 2,897 | 5,887 |
| Growth 22-32 (#) | +1,026 persons | +1,440 persons | +1,418 persons | +2,858 persons |
| Growth 22-32 (%) | +94.7% | +92.9% | +95.9% | +94.3% |
Source – ABS data 2017 – 2032 population projections by age and gender.
ACARA and Myschools data – released and updated annually
These come out annually and give is information like the numbers of enrollments (2008 – 2023) for every school, staff numbers and parent contributions.
Sample school – high growth area
• School Sector: Independent
• School Type: Combined
• Full Time Equivalent Teaching Staff: 200.4
• Full Time Equivalent Non-Teaching Staff: 136.2
• Total Enrolments: 2239
• Girls Enrolments: 1260
• Boys Enrolments: 979
• Student / Teaching Staff Ratio: 11.2 students per FTE teaching staff
| Enrolments | |||
| Year | Enrolments | Change vs prev. year | Change vs 2008 |
| 2023 Enrolments | 2,239 | 2.61% | 114.67% |
| 2022 Enrolments | 2,182 | 1.54% | 109.2% |
| 2021 Enrolments | 2,149 | 2.58% | 106.04% |
| 2020 Enrolments | 2,095 | -1.74% | 100.86% |
| 2019 Enrolments | 2,132 | 3.14% | 104.41% |
| 2018 Enrolments | 2,067 | 2.89% | 98.18% |
| 2017 Enrolments | 2,009 | 1.98% | 92.62% |
| 2016 Enrolments | 1,970 | 7.95% | 88.88% |
| 2015 Enrolments | 1,825 | 7.29% | 74.98% |
| 2014 Enrolments | 1,701 | 8.69% | 63.09% |
| 2013 Enrolments | 1,565 | 15.07% | 50.05% |
| 2012 Enrolments | 1,360 | 5.26% | 30.39% |
| 2011 Enrolments | 1,292 | 8.39% | 23.87% |
| 2010 Enrolments | 1,192 | 18.25% | 14.29% |
| 2009 Enrolments | 1,008 | -3.36% | -3.36% |
| 2008 Enrolments | 1,043 | Not Available | 0% |
| Average Fee | |
| Year | Average Fee ($ per Student) |
| 2020 | $12,514 |
| 2022 | $13,759 |
ACECQA data – released and updated annually
This shows us some 17,000 ELC’s, Kindergartens and child minding places and how many registered places they have and their NQS rating. This can be great information for marketing for Prep students.
The Strategic Plan
When setting up your Strategic Plan for your school, we really should start with the demographic forecasts for your area. You may be able to say you “think” the population is going to increase in school age students, and you feel the socio-economics are strong enough that they can afford to pay your fees, but are you confident that is solid and sustainable, and will your Board accept these views?
Many schools are involved in multi-million dollar building programs for the long term improvement of their facilities, and much of the justification is the increase in enrolments that are being forecast and the ability for these student’s parents to pay their fees.
Where does the balance lie?
Some schools have a very limp Strategic Plan or basically none at all. Most we deal with tend to have a three year cycle, and obviously in the last year, the work goes in to create the new plan. The questions we can ask is are their realistic reviews during the three year periods, and are the assumptions validated or checked to ensure the school is on the right track?
Our view is every five or six years a school needs to do a full analysis to make sure the Strategic Plan is based on sound data. Whilst five years makes sense as that is the timing of the Census cycle, there is no particular time during the census cycle that all the relevant information is “fresh” as various data sets are released at different times. We normally suggest this analysis be done in the last year of your current Strategic Plan, and then as the Strategic Plan is coming together, this work is available to use. At the same time, a strong online mapping system can be established so we have much more of a DIY tool that can be regularly and securely used within the schools, and updated annually.
The online mapping will show ALL your current students, future enrolments, alumni, and certain past years if you want them displayed. It will also allow you to see many relevant Census demographics, and what we feel is the most important numbers, which are population projections by age from 2023 to 2032.
This tells us whether we are going to enjoy strong student growth in our area, right through to areas where the student age population is decreasing by a considerable amount. Other areas of significance is the Socio Economic scores (SEIFA) which gives you a measurement of the ability of the parents to pay your fees. It also gives you data on every school in Australia’s enrolment numbers 2008 – 2022, and 17,000 long term child cares, kindergartens and ELC’s for marketing purposes.
The mapping also allows you to identify your Primary and Secondary Trade areas, and look at smaller areas in terms of market share, where we can show your schools’ students as the numerator and the available students from that area as the denominator. These types of layers should help plan the school’s approach to enrolments, marketing and bus routing.
Summary
Good data is the key to good decision making for the long-term future of your school. Whether you choose to collect and analyse the available data internally or have an external company do this work, by having a report and access to regularly updated online mapping, you are then equipped to make the right decisions for your school’s future, from the Board though to the operational staff.
Please use this to assist in your future planning, and contact us to discuss how we can help you further.