Independent schools are flying into the future, how is your State fairing overall in the sector…
Peter Buckingham is the Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis, a Melbourne based consultancy in demographics, mapping and analysis specializing in schools. Peter is both a CMC (Certified Management Consultant) and a Fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants (FIMC). Peter can be contacted at peterb@spectrumanalysis.com.au or called on +61 3 9830 0077 or visit our website at https://spectrumanalysis.com.au/services/education-analysis
If your school has remained stable, dropped enrolments or has NOT felt the pressure of additional enrolment requests, you should be concerned! Nationally, the numbers are showing Independent schools growing more than Catholic or Government schools.
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
Many of us (myself included) were of the view a couple of years ago that the COVID-19 pandemic would cause more economic strain across the country, and force (for financial reasons) an exodus of students from Independent schools into the Government schools system.
Whilst unemployment went up (temporarily), it was low in the white collar and grey collar communities, and these are predominantly the parents of your students, at least in Adelaide. However the future may change this as inflation is starting to run strongly across our country and interest rate increases will put more strain on the family budget.
If we just look at 2019 as the pre COVID-19 level, and 2021 as the COVID-19 effected year, we see Independent schools enrolments rose 6.33% over that two year period. By contrast, Total student enrolments increased by 2.35%, Government schools increased only 1.25% and Catholic schools increased by 2.87%.
• South Australia / Northern Territory
• Western Australia
• Queensland
• Victoria / Tasmania
• New South Wales / Australian Capital Territory
South Australia
Independent schools enrolments were up 4.45% in South Australia – 2021 (COVID-19 effected year) over 2019 (pre COVID-19 year), mainly due to people sending their children to Independent schools earlier than they were planning to because the Independent schools handled schooling over the COVID-19 years far better than Government schools.
This was not surprising when you think of the quality of your teachers and of the computer hardware that would be available in households of Independent school families for home schooling compared to lower socio economic families with children at Government schools. While lock downs and school closures were far less in South Australia than in the eastern states, it still had a mental effect on the parent’s decisions.
Catholic schools appear to have done very well over the 2 year period increasing by 6.24%, while the Government schools actually decreased in enrolments by 1.63%. Overall the increase in student numbers over the 2 year period was only 0.80%, which is much less than the National figures.
We extracted this information out of the new ACARA data for South Australia that goes up to and includes 2021:
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
Northern Territory
The Northern Territory has far less Independent schools than other states and territories and actually showed a drop in Total Student numbers and a drop in Independent school enrolments, the only state or territory to do this. These numbers are not able to be explained by myself so I will leave it to the readers to apply their local views.
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
Learnings from these numbers for SA and NT
Whilst averages can be dangerous, and different geographies may have different challenges, the overall climate within South Australia for Independent schools over the last three years has been moving upwards, but not apparently as quick as the Catholic education system.
When the total number of students at Independent schools in South Australia has increased 5.84% from 2018 to 2021, hopefully you have felt the trend. Longer term this will not last, but if parents have now placed their children in Independent schools, it is very difficult to then explain to them why you wish to take them back to a Government school.
My view is that these strong numbers will hold for the next year or so, and then may reduce in the future. In summary, South Australian Independent schools need to not become complacent with their stronger enrolment numbers over the last three years, but be prepared for this to turn as the economic conditions start to surpass the feeling of comfort in from the COVID-19 years.
Western Australia
Peter has a good knowledge of Perth having lived there in his past life for two years.
Independent schools enrolments were up 6.76% in Western Australia – 2021 (COVID-19 effected year) over 2019 (pre COVID-19 year), mainly due to people sending their children to Independent schools earlier than they were planning to because the Independent schools handled schooling over the COVID-19 years far better than Government schools.
This was not surprising when you think of the quality of your teachers and of the computer hardware that would be available in households of Independent school families for home schooling compared to lower socio economic families with children at Government schools. While lock downs and school closures were far less in Western Australia than in the eastern states, it still had a mental effect on the parent’s decisions.
We keep hearing there is a strain on the Y5 and Y6 levels as parents wanted to send their children a couple of years earlier than they may have been previously planning.
We extracted this information out of the new ACARA data for Western Australia that goes up to and includes 2021:
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
The Western Australian numbers show Independent enrolments up 6.76% from 2019 – 2021, compared to a total number of students (all categories) increasing by 3.18% over the same period. Government schools have run below the Western Australia overall figures (2.61%), while Catholic schools have fared even worse at 1.92%.
Nationally, the numbers are showing a similar trend to what we see in Western Australia, namely independent schools growing more than Catholic or Government schools, meaning this has been a national phenomenon.
Learnings from these numbers for Western Australia
If your school has remained stable, dropped enrolments or has NOT felt the pressure of additional enrolment requests, you should be concerned! Whilst averages can be dangerous, and different geographies may have different challenges, the overall climate within Western Australia for Independent schools over the last three years has been moving strongly upwards. When the total number of students at Independent schools in Western Australia has increased 8.90% from 2018 to 2021, hopefully you have felt the trend.
Longer term this will not last, but if parents have now placed their children in Independent schools, it is very difficult to then explain to them why you wish to take them back to a Government school. My view is that these strong numbers will hold for the next year or so, and then may reduce in the future. Western Australia has enjoyed minimal intrastate migration, but can expect to feel the effects of inflation and the general economic climate which will work against the huge increases that you have enjoyed.
In summary, Western Australian Independent schools need to not become complacent with their strong enrolments, but be prepared for this to turn as the economic conditions start to surpass the feeling of comfort in enrolment numbers from the COVID-19 years.
Queensland
Independent schools enrolments were up 9.62% in Queensland 2021 (COVID-19 effected year) over 2019 (pre COVID-19 year), mainly due to people sending their children to Independent schools earlier than they were planning to because the Independent schools handled schooling over the COVID-19 years far better than Government schools.
This was not surprising when you think of the quality of your teachers and of the computer hardware that would be available in households of Independent school families for home schooling compared to lower socio economic families with children at Government schools. While lock downs and school closures were far less in Queensland than in the southern states, it still had a mental effect on the parent’s decisions.
We keep hearing there is a strain on the Y5 and Y6 levels as parents wanted to send their children a couple of years earlier than they may have been previously planning.
We extracted this information out of the new ACARA data for Queensland that goes up to and includes 2021:
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
The Queensland numbers show Independent enrolments up 9.62% from 2019 – 2021, compared to a total number of students (all categories) increasing by 4.03% over the same period. Government schools have run below the Queensland overall figures (2.63%), while Catholic schools have increased somewhere in between (4.65%).
Nationally, the numbers are showing a similar trend to what we see in Queensland, namely independent schools growing more than Catholic or Government schools, meaning this has been a national phenomenon.
Learnings from these numbers for Queensland
If your school has remained stable, dropped enrolments or has NOT felt the pressure of additional enrolment requests, you should be concerned! Whilst averages can be dangerous, and different geographies may have different challenges, the overall climate within Queensland for Independent schools over the last three years has been moving strongly upwards. When the total number of students at Independent schools in Queensland has increased 13.07% from 2018 to 2021, hopefully you have felt the trend.
Longer term this will not last, but if parents have now placed their children in Independent schools, it is very difficult to then explain to them why you wish to take them back to a Government school. My view is that these strong numbers will hold for the next year or so, and then may reduce in the future. Queensland has enjoyed strong intrastate migration, but can expect to feel the effects of inflation and the general economic climate which will work against the huge increases that you have enjoyed.
In summary, Queensland Independent schools need to not become complacent with their strong enrolments, but be prepared for this to turn as the economic conditions start to surpass the feeling of comfort in enrolment numbers from the COVID-19 years.
Victoria
Independent schools enrolments were up 5.74% in Victoria 2021 over 2019, mainly due to people sending their children to Independent schools earlier than they were planning to because the Independent schools handled home schooling far better than Government schools.
This was not surprising when you think of the quality of your teachers and of the computer hardware that would be available in households of Independent school families compared to lower socio economic families with children at Government schools.
We keep hearing there is a strain on the Y5 and Y6 levels as parents wanted to send their children a couple of years earlier than they may have been previously planning.
We extracted this information out of the new ACARA data for Victoria that goes up to and includes 2021:
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
The Victorian numbers show Independent enrolments up 8.41% from 2018 – 2021, compared to a total number of students (all categories) increasing by 4.55% over the same period. Government schools have run at similar figures to the Victorian overall figures (4.66%), while Catholic schools have not kept up (1.59%).
Tasmania
The Tasmanian numbers as follows:
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
This shows the total student numbers in Tasmania have remained fairly stable – increasing only 0.38% from 2018 – 2021, whilst Independent numbers have grown 10.96%, and government school numbers have dropped by 1.83% over the same period. This is a great showcase for Independent schools over the other classifications.
Nationally, a similar set of numbers is showing to what we see in Victoria and Tasmania, meaning this has been a national phenomenon.
Learning from these numbers for Victoria and Tasmania
If your school has remained stable, dropped enrolments or has NOT felt the pressure of additional enrolment requests, you should be concerned! Whilst averages can be dangerous, and different geographies may have different challenges, the overall climate within Victoria / Tasmania for Independent schools over the last three years has been moving strongly upwards. When the total number of students at Independent schools in around 8% – 10% from 2018 to 2021, hopefully you have felt the trend.
Longer term this may not last, but if parents have now placed their children in Independent schools, it is very difficult to then explain to them why you wish to take them back to a Government school. My view is that these numbers will hold for the next few years, and may reduce in the future once the threat of home schooling hopefully disappears, and COVID-19 becomes something we all live with.
New South Wales
Independent schools enrolments were up 3.54% in NSW 2021 over 2020, mainly due to people sending their children to Independent schools earlier than they were planning to because the Independent schools handled home schooling far better than Government schools.
This was not surprising when you think of the quality of your teachers and of the computer hardware that would be available in households of Independent school families compared to lower socio economic families with children at Government schools.
We keep hearing there is a strain on the Y5 and Y6 levels as parents wanted to send their children a couple of years earlier than they may have been previously planning.
We extracted this information out of the new ACARA data for NSW that goes up to and includes 2021:
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
Australian Capital Territory
The ACT has their own separate numbers as follows:
Note – Combined is a school K – 12, so many more combined schools in the Independent groups than Government or Catholic.
This shows the distribution of additional children has been shared far more evenly, and actually Government schools have grown the most from 2018 – 2021. Maybe this can be interpreted as the government’s spending on education per student in the ACT is far more than is spent by the combined Federal and State governments in all other states?
Nationally, a similar set of numbers is showing to what we see in NSW and ACT, meaning this has been a national phenomenon.
Learnings from these numbers for New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory
If your school has remained stable, dropped enrolments or has NOT felt the pressure of additional enrolment requests, you should be concerned!
Whilst averages can be dangerous, and different geographies may have different challenges, the overall climate within NSW for Independent schools over the last three years has been moving strongly upwards. When the total number of students at Independent schools in NSW is up 6.33% from 2019 to 2021, hopefully you have felt the trend.