Demographic Issues Facing Schools Today
Where are the students of the future coming from?
Recently I have become very aware of what I see as a forecast reduction in potential student numbers for independent schools, especially in the higher socio-economic areas across Australia, where most of our school clients are located.
We encourage schools to make strategic planning decisions based on facts and data and I would encourage you to consider four future scenarios:
1. High Growth in numbers – Probably applicable for many lower fee independent schools in high growth corridors.
2. Continue as is – with approximately current enrolments for the next 10 years. Most schools feel this is their reality, but maybe it is not?
3. Small drop in numbers – both from local students (within 5 kms) and more distant relying on public and private buses. Probably this is the real situation for many schools as in my view the pendulum will probably swing back from the post COVID high to a more normal reality. Competition for the new students over the next few years will be very competitive, and there is a finite number.
4. A drop that may be nearer 10% over the next 10 years – The reality of the current population forecasts may mean that by simply retaining your market share in a higher socio-economic area, this is where the numbers will lie. Thinking you can supplement your enrolments greatly by transporting large numbers of students in is also very optimistic as lower fee schools in middle socio-economic areas will be doing their best to hold their market shares as well.
Contact me directly for a quick chat about your school’s most likely facts and data…
Details:
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