Hope is not a strategy in 2026
Demographics should be essential in your decision-making process.
Peter Buckingham BSc, GradDip (Market Modelling), CMC, CFE, FFCA, MEdPlus, WFA, ACAVic is a Demographer and the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis Australia Pty Ltd, the leading demographic analysis and mapping company for schools in Australia. He was also a Federal Director and Victoria / Tasmania President of the Institute of Management Consultants. Peter is contactable by email at: peterb@spectrumanalysis.com.au or visit spectrumanalysis.com.au.
When making strategic decisions for your school, is the starting point facts and data, or do we make some assumptions (gut feeling) and start from there?
Data is available to answer most of your questions in a factual manner, and if schools cannot use facts and data in their own planning – I am unsure what they are teaching their pupils in this day and age!
Principals, Business Managers and other Directors are normally very well educated, from PhD’s through all types of degrees, and down to the basic rules of common sense. Hopefully the decisions you make for your school are based on data, and not emotion or just the old “wet finger in the air” approach. As the stewards of your school, you should be thinking of the long-term future of your school.
Data available to assist
When you dig around, there is a mountain of information that should assist in your future decisions. Much of this is free; however having it in a simple format so you can use it can be a very large challenge.
Census data
Every five years the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) runs a Census. The last Census was in August 2021, and over the next couple of years various data sets are released. This includes the population of any area (in 2021), by gender, age, ethnicity, income, religious trends, what type of schools your children attend and much more. This becomes the starting point of the five year cycle.
Population Forecasts
The ABS release population forecasts for areas and the latest release Australia wide data came out in October 2024, and covered 2017 – 2032. We have extrapolated this to 2037 as previous forecasts covered a 15 year period.
This breaks down to gender and age groups 0 – 4, 5 – 9, 10 – 14, 15 – 19 etc which gives us coverage for school students.
As an example, Austral – Greendale is forecast to increase by around 13,300 school age students from 2025 – 2037 for 5 – 18-year-old children.
• SA2 Area : Austral – Greendale
• State : NSW
| Age 0-18 Population Projections | ||||
| Year | Age 0-4 | Age 5-11 | Age 12-18 | Age 5-18 |
| 2022 | 1,298 | 1,462 | 1,329 | 2,791 |
| 2023 | 1,554 | 1,986 | 1,750 | 3,736 |
| 2024 | 1,841 | 2,497 | 2,158 | 4,655 |
| 2025 | 2,126 | 3,022 | 2,613 | 5,635 |
| 2026 | 2,412 | 3,564 | 3,096 | 6,660 |
| 2027 | 2,682 | 4,128 | 3,603 | 7,732 |
| 2028 | 3,006 | 4,613 | 4,134 | 8,747 |
| 2029 | 3,316 | 5,104 | 4,652 | 9,756 |
| 2030 | 3,618 | 5,579 | 5,177 | 10,756 |
| 2031 | 3,912 | 6,046 | 5,696 | 11,743 |
| 2032 | 4,195 | 6,485 | 6,233 | 12,718 |
| 2033 | 4,508 | 6,979 | 6,823 | 13,802 |
| 2034 | 4,840 | 7,507 | 7,467 | 14,974 |
| 2035 | 5,188 | 8,063 | 8,156 | 16,219 |
| 2036 | 5,558 | 8,654 | 8,902 | 17,557 |
| 2037 | 5,943 | 9,277 | 9,701 | 18,978 |
| Growth 22-32 (#) | +2,897 persons | +5,023 persons | +4,903 persons | +9,927 persons |
| Growth 22-32 (%) | +223% | +343.4% | +368.6% | +355.5% |
| Growth 22-37 (#) | +4,645 persons | +7,815 persons | +8,372 persons | +16,187 persons |
| Growth 22-37 (%) | +357.6% | +534.2% | +629.4% | +579.7% |
Source – ABS date 2022 – 2032 and extrapolated to 2037 by Spectrum Analysis
SEIFA – Socio Economic Index for Areas
This is looking at every area in Australia to give a comparative score to look at what the residents basically can afford to do. The average of the SEIFA score for Australia from the 2021 census was 1004, and top areas like around Double Bay or Toorak score up near 1200, and low socio economic regional areas may drop to numbers like 600 – 800. This is a better way for comparing areas Australia wide than just the Average Household Income. This is one of the best appetites as to the parent’s ability to pay fees.
ACARA and Myschools data – released and updated annually
These come out annually and give is information like the numbers of enrolments (2008 – 2025) for every school, staff numbers and parent contributions.
Sample school – high growth area.
• School Sector : Independent
• School Type : Combined
• Full Time Equivalent Teaching Staff : 103.6
• Full Time Equivalent Non-Teaching Staff : 54.1
• Total Enrolments : 1639
• Girls Enrolments : 825
• Boys Enrolments : 814
• Student/Teaching Staff Ratio : 15 students per FTE teaching staff
| Enrolments | |||
| Year | Enrolments | Change vs prev. year | Change vs 2008 |
| 2025 Enrolments | 1,565 | 7.56% | 826.04% |
| 2024 Enrolments | 1,455 | 3.41% | 760.95% |
| 2023 Enrolments | 1,407 | 11.58% | 732.54% |
| 2022 Enrolments | 1,261 | 5.79% | 646.15% |
| 2021 Enrolments | 1,192 | 7.39% | 605.33% |
| 2020 Enrolments | 1,110 | 8.19% | 556.8% |
| 2019 Enrolments | 1,026 | 6.88% | 507.1% |
| 2018 Enrolments | 960 | 9.22% | 468.05% |
| 2017 Enrolments | 879 | 11.83% | 420.12% |
| 2016 Enrolments | 786 | 16.27% | 365.09% |
| 2015 Enrolments | 676 | 18.6% | 300% |
| 2014 Enrolments | 570 | 17.77% | 237.28% |
| 2013 Enrolments | 484 | 23.47% | 186.39% |
| 2012 Enrolments | 392 | 23.27% | 131.95% |
| 2011 Enrolments | 318 | 18.66% | 88.17% |
| 2010 Enrolments | 268 | 29.47% | 58.58% |
| 2009 Enrolments | 207 | 22.49% | 22.49% |
| 2008 Enrolments | 169 | Not Available | 0% |
(Source: ACARA data released February 2025)
| Average Fee | |
| Year | Average Fee ($ per Student) |
| 2020 | $5,405 |
| 2023 | $6,482 |
| 2025 | $7,374 |
(Source: Myschool data)
The Strategic Plan
When setting up the Strategic Plan for your school, we should start with the demographic forecasts for your area.
You may be able to say you “think” the population is going to increase in school age students, and you feel the socio economics are strong enough that they can afford to pay your fees, but are you confident that is solid and sustainable, and will your Board accept these views?
Many schools are involved in multi-million dollar building programs for the long term improvement of their facilities, and much of the justification is the increase in enrolments that are being forecast and the ability for these student’s parents to pay their fees.
Good data is the key to good decision making for the long-term future of your school. Whether you choose to collect and analyse the available data internally or have an external company do this work, by having a report and access to regularly updated online mapping, you are then equipped to make the right decisions for your school’s future, from the Board though to the operational staff.
Contact me directly for a quick chat about your school’s most likely facts and data…
Details:
Download a free eBook, our brochure, gain access to sample reports and online mapping etc. for Schools, Colleges and Universities online at
https://spectrumanalysis.com.au/services/education-analysis
Download a free eBook, our brochure, gain access to sample reports and online mapping etc. for Early Learning Centres online at
https://spectrumanalysis.com.au/services/early-years-education-centres
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