Strategic Planning for Schools, Colleges and Universities in 2023
Welcome back from what we hope were great holidays over Christmas and the New Year period. Hopefully you are feeling refreshed and looking forward to starting 2023!
The politicians and the economists are saying it could be a challenging year. We have been hearing that there will probably be more interest rate increases in the first quarter, and then we will all have to get used to higher mortgage repayments and stable or falling house prices for the next year or so.
Whilst not trying to be an economist, I believe history has shown that in tight times, there is a move from higher fee schools to lower fee schools, and ultimately, some students potentially moving back into the Government education system.
We have seen a flight towards Independent Schools in the period 2019 – 2021 mainly due to COVID-19, but is that going to reverse?
Nationally, the Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA) numbers showed a 6.33% increase in Independent School students from 2019 – 2021, against a total student increase of only 2.35%
| AUSTRALIA | |||||||
| Full Time Equivalent Enrolments | Year | 2018 – 2021 | 2019 – 2021 | 2020 – 2021 | |||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||
| Catholic | 713,654 | 717,503 | 727,912 | 738,094 | 3.42% | 2.87% | 1.40% |
| Combined | 102,019 | 104,714 | 110,878 | 118,004 | 15.67% | 12.69% | 6.43% |
| Primary | 356,573 | 355,432 | 354,748 | 354,818 | -0.49% | -0.17% | 0.02% |
| Secondary | 252,505 | 254,588 | 259,298 | 262,238 | 3.85% | 3.01% | 1.13% |
| Special | 2,556 | 2,769 | 2,989 | 3,033 | 18.68% | 9.53% | 1.48% |
| Government | 2,565,024 | 2,604,588 | 2,643,301 | 2,637,137 | 2.81% | 1.25% | -0.23% |
| Combined | 187,174 | 192,111 | 196,108 | 197,529 | 5.53% | 2.82% | 0.72% |
| Primary | 1,484,902 | 1,498,264 | 1,500,215 | 1,487,459 | 0.17% | -0.72% | -0.85% |
| Secondary | 860,652 | 881,181 | 913,679 | 918,517 | 6.72% | 4.24% | 0.53% |
| Special | 32,297 | 33,032 | 33,299 | 33,632 | 4.14% | 1.82% | 1.00% |
| Independent | 614,503 | 629,370 | 645,446 | 669,202 | 8.90% | 6.33% | 3.68% |
| Combined | 536,555 | 548,681 | 562,162 | 582,691 | 8.60% | 6.20% | 3.65% |
| Primary | 28,797 | 28,606 | 28,337 | 29,451 | 2.27% | 2.95% | 3.93% |
| Secondary | 39,866 | 41,526 | 42,504 | 43,614 | 9.40% | 5.03% | 2.61% |
| Special | 9,285 | 10,557 | 12,442 | 13,447 | 44.82% | 27.38% | 8.08% |
| Grand Total | 3,893,181 | 3,951,460 | 4,016,659 | 4,044,433 | 3.89% | 2.35% | 0.69% |
We will provide further advise as soon as we have the 2022 ACARA enrolment numbers.
I cannot see this increase continuing beyond 2022, and expect that the initial test will be a decrease in future enrolments for many Independent schools in 2023, especially those classed as middle or lower fee schools.
If you see (or feel) the writing on the wall – please do something about it now!
We help schools, colleges and universities with a fact based data analysis that shows where the issues may be in current and future enrolments.
For marketing professionals, we can identify the areas of best potential going forward.
We are used by many of Australia’s largest schools, many middle and lower income schools, and quite a few Catholic schools to better understand about the demographics of their market. Schools then use this information in their Strategic Plan and their Marketing Plans.
We can also provide data driven advice in relation to bus routing, capital investment planning and forecasting.
Principals, Business Managers, Admissions and Enrolment staff all need to understand their market areas, and what is the potential to grow or sustain enrolments. We can provide services to schools, colleges and universities in Australia and New Zealand.
Please contact us if you would like to discuss how we can help you in what could be difficult times over the next couple of years.